The Midterm Elections and Trump’s Foreign Policy

By:Abdul Deen-Sie
Institute of Strategic Affairs–Sierra Leone.
November 5, 2026.
The United States midterm elections have concluded. The 120th Congress is scheduled to convene in January 2027, with Democrats holding the majority in both chambers.
With clear congressional majorities and a lame-duck president, can Democrats force major shifts in U.S. foreign policy?
The President still leads foreign policy, possessing institutional and political advantages over Congress.
The legislature can, and occasionally does, influence outcomes, but it has been largely passive in recent years.
On the central policy questions, continuity will outweigh change. Democrats could, for example, invoke the War Powers Resolution to end the Iran conflict. They could vote to repeal Trump’s tariffs on Canada. They could authorize military aid to Ukraine.

Yet holding a majority is only part of the equation. The decisive figure is 34 the number of Senate votes required to sustain a presidential veto.
If legislation passes both chambers and Trump vetoes it, he will almost certainly retain enough Republican support to prevent an override.
However, power of the purse rests with Congress; for example, without funding allocations, the war in Iran would come to an end.
But Congress will unlikely take that route. The political cost of withholding funding for troops is perceived as very high.
Almost two decades ago, while measures to compel withdrawal from Iraq secured Senate majorities, Congress never cut war funding. Moreover, even war skeptics are not convinced that an abrupt exit would improve the U.S. position.
Overall, the midterms will have limited impact on foreign policy; their political ramifications, however, will be substantial.

When presidents lose congressional majorities, they typically abandon ambitious domestic programs and turn to foreign policy, where executive authority is stronger.
That often prompts bold, high-profile moves. For example, pursuing a permanent deal with Iran. This tendency is especially pronounced in the final two years of a two-term administration.
Democrats will convene oversight hearings and intensify investigations of the administration, which will consume considerable executive-branch time and attention.
Foreign governments, for their part, may look beyond the current White House, planning for the future. In some cases, they may wait out the administration, delaying agreements they dislike and re-engage for better terms under the next administration.

The 2028 presidential campaign effectively begins in January 2027, after swearing in of the new Congress. Political leaders will start positioning themselves for what comes next, both parties will debate their foreign-policy direction. Competing views will emerge within the Democratic Party, while Republicans will seek to formulate a post-Trump approach.